WALL STREET SECTION

This one is interesting. It looks at Wall Street's performance in the few months after a new Fed Chairman is elected. Statisticians will note however that the data sample is very small, but nonetheless -

Feb 1970 - Arthur Burns

• S&P moves up for 6-8 weeks
• Then drops 23% in April-May
• Good buying opportunity as the market rose 30%+ by the end of the year with further gains till autumn 1979

Aug 1978 - G. William Miller

• No real movement in the market for several weeks
• Then a 15% decline in Sep-Oct
• Again a good buying opportunity

Aug 1979 - Paul Volker

• Small upside for a few weeks
• Then a savage 9% down move over 2 Oct weeks
• Another good buying opportunity

Aug 1987 - Easy Alan Greenspan

• Sideways market for 5-6 weeks
• Then disaster with a 30% drop in a week, so called Black Monday
• 1988 posts gains of over 25%

So if past history is worth going on expect sharp declines come Spring....