Some excellent research done by Chip Goodyear of BHP Billiton produces the chart below.
It was compiled with data from the US PPI and CPI indexes, US Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States and the Colonial Times, to 1970.
Basically it shows that general commodity prices are at the lowest they've ever been for 200 years. Sure, prices can stall here and go lower but the risk/reward of the trade massively favours explosions to the upside.
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